Deutsche Bank revises CO2 emissions estimate

Deutsche Bank has cut its 2009 estimate of carbon emissions from sectors covered by the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETSⁱ). The deepening European recession has prompted the German bank to revise its forecast to 1.97 billion tonnes, down 50 million from a previous estimate of 2.02 billion tonnes. Deutsche Bank analysts singled out the steel and cement sectors as set to suffer a tough year, with emissions set to fall significantly. The bank predicts that there will be 92 million carbon allowances left over by the end of the current 2008-12 trading period as a result. Prices for allowances, however, could rise over the next 12 months as German generators, many of which burn coal and thus require more permits than other types of power generators, start forward-selling power for 2013 in mid-2010, said the Bank.